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Hashprice and difficulty: what sets mining income

How bitcoin price, network difficulty, transaction fees and the halving combine into hashprice, the income of one unit of hashrate.

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Two owners with the same machine at the same site earn the same amount on the same day. What that amount is, and why it changes, comes down to one figure: hashprice. This guide explains what goes into it.

Hashprice in one sentence

Hashprice is what one unit of hashrate earns in one day. It is usually quoted in dollars per PH/s per day, and sometimes in BTC. It is the same for every miner on the network, before pool fees. Your machines' share of it depends only on how much hashrate they deliver.

Where the bitcoin comes from

About every ten minutes, the network adds a block. The miner or pool that finds it receives the block reward, which has two parts:

All the miners in the world share those rewards in proportion to their hashrate.

Difficulty: how many are sharing

If more machines join the network, blocks would arrive faster than every ten minutes. To prevent that, the network adjusts the difficulty of the puzzle every 2,016 blocks, which is about every two weeks. More hashrate on the network means higher difficulty. Less means lower.

For an owner, difficulty is the size of the crowd. The rewards per day stay roughly the same, so when difficulty rises, each TH/s earns a little less bitcoin. Over the years difficulty has trended up, with drops along the way, because new and more efficient machines keep joining.

The halving

Every 210,000 blocks, about every four years, the subsidy is cut in half. This is the halving. On that day the bitcoin created per block drops by half, and so does most of the income of every miner in BTC terms. Fees are not affected.

The halving is known years ahead. It is the main reason efficiency matters: after a halving, the machines that need the most electricity per terahash are the first to stop being worth running.

The four inputs

InputWhen it risesHow it moves
Bitcoin priceHashprice in dollars risesEvery day, set by the market
Network difficultyHashprice fallsAbout every two weeks
Transaction feesHashprice risesBlock by block, with network demand
HalvingHashprice falls at each oneAbout every four years, on a known schedule

Dollars and BTC are two views

In BTC terms, what one TH/s earns goes down over time, as difficulty rises and halvings pass. In dollar terms it also depends on the price of bitcoin, which has moved both ways. An owner who keeps the bitcoin and an owner who sells it each month read the same hashprice differently.

What you control and what you do not

You do not controlYou do control
The price of bitcoinThe efficiency of the machines you buy
Network difficultyThe site, and so the electricity rate
Transaction feesWhether you keep or sell what you mine
The halving scheduleWhen you add or replace machines

Where to see it

Careful: Mining output depends on bitcoin's price, network difficulty and uptime, and is not guaranteed. Nothing here is investment advice.

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