Home / Blog / 12 October 2026

News · Oct 12, 2026 · 4 min read

Bitcoin today: back to $84,000 as oil falls, after the ETFs' worst week since June

The US spot ETFs lost $681 million last week, their biggest weekly outflow since June, and bitcoin still climbed back to about $84,000 as oil fell. Trump declared an energy ceasefire that Ukraine says it was not consulted on, and the next difficulty adjustment is four and a half days away.

Firsthand card: "Bitcoin today: back to $84,000 as oil falls, after the ETFs' worst week since June"

The ETFs lost $681 million in a week, and bitcoin went back to $84,000

Bitcoin traded near $84,050 on Monday morning after dipping to about $83,500, CoinDesk reported. Bitcoin.com News put the weekly close at $83,773, down 3.2% on the week, which opened at $86,530 and touched a low of $80,393.

The US spot bitcoin ETFs took out $681 million over the week, CoinDesk reported from SoSoValue data, their largest weekly withdrawal since June, and most of it left on Wednesday and Thursday. Our ETF flows chart has Monday to Thursday at $702.3 million out. Friday's $21.1 million inflow, reported on Saturday, brings the week to the same $681 million. The last bigger week on our chart was the one to 26 June, when $1.79 billion left.

Positioning leaned the other way. Bitcoin.com News reported about $140 million of shorts liquidated after the weekly close above $83,000, with funding near neutral. On our liquidations chart, 11 October saw $33.9 million of shorts force-closed against $5.9 million of longs, and our funding chart reads about 2% a year. Analysts quoted by CoinDesk name $82,000 as the support to hold and US inflation data on 14 October as the next macro test.

$681 million out in a week, and bitcoin finished it near $84,000.

Chart: Net flow into the US spot bitcoin ETFs every trading day since May. The red cluster on the right is 5 to 8 October; the deeper red run in June is the last week that was bigger. Open the chart

Trump declared an energy ceasefire, and oil fell on a diesel deal

On Sunday 11 October Trump wrote on Truth Social that both Russia and Ukraine had agreed to an immediate ceasefire on attacks on energy infrastructure, and warned "Do not break it!", CoinDesk reported. Ukraine's President Zelensky first told Axios the announcement was news to him, then wrote on X that Ukraine supports the ceasefire and is waiting for details from the American side. CoinDesk's article carried no Russian response, and Bloomberg's Javier Blas noted that it was the second time Trump had made a similar announcement.

Bitcoin did not react to Trump's post, then rose more than 1% to $83,900 after Zelensky's. By Monday CoinDesk was reporting that Ukrainian officials said they had not been consulted and that Russian strikes on the energy grid had continued.

Oil moved for a different reason. WTI futures fell 1.8% to $90.28 on Monday, reversing Thursday's spike, CoinDesk reported, after Friday's diesel deal. The Associated Press reported that Trump said Russia would supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel at once, and that the Treasury issued a licence holding off sanctions until April 2027 on Russian diesel loaded as of Friday, the first easing of diesel sanctions beyond the standard 30 days since February 2022. Oil had been the week's drag on bitcoin: the 9 October recap has it pushing bitcoin under $81,000.

Ledger says the tampered devices trace to one reseller's batch

Ledger said on Sunday that the number of affected devices appears limited, and that every confirmed case tied to the 9 October wallet drains involves devices sold through CryptoBilis, a reseller operating in Indonesia, Malaysia and the Philippines, CoinDesk reported. Ledger says its own systems and direct sales are unaffected. It confirmed on Saturday that one affected device contained an unauthorised hardware implant, as the 11 October recap reported.

Ledger has not confirmed a loss figure. Third-party on-chain researchers estimate $86 million to $93 million was taken from more than 300 wallets across Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tron. Its advice to anyone holding a CryptoBilis device: do not set up an unused one, and if one is already set up, move the funds to a new recovery phrase on a device bought from Ledger.

Argentina's central bank says nothing changes for crypto in banks this year

Juan Curutchet, who supervises financial institutions at the Central Bank of Argentina, told an event of the Argentine Payment Chamber that "nothing is going to happen this year" on crypto in banking and payment channels, though he sees it as a possibility during a second Milei presidency, Bitcoin.com News reported on Sunday.

The central bank's 2022 ban on financial institutions offering crypto services stays in place. The same report cites Chainalysis putting the value received in Argentina at more than $88.5 billion in the 12 months to 30 June, the second most in Latin America.

The next difficulty adjustment is about four and a half days away

The last adjustment, on 3 October, was a 0.03% fall. On 12 October there were 653 blocks to go, about four and a half days at ten minutes a block. Our difficulty adjustments chart estimates a rise of about 5%, but that estimate has swung from a 4.8% fall on 4 October to a 5.7% rise on 7 October, so it is a guide, not a result.

The estimate leans on the network's hashrate, which averaged 1,022 EH/s over the seven days to 12 October against 961 EH/s the week before. The daily readings are estimates and ranged from 916 to 1,177 EH/s in those seven days. Hashprice, the bitcoin a petahash earns in a day, was 0.000476 on 11 October on our hashprice chart.

Chart: Bitcoin earned per petahash per day since June. It has barely moved since 21 September while the price and the ETF flows moved around it. Open the chart

What it means for miners

A week of ETF outflows and an oil swing moved the dollar price by a few thousand dollars. The coins a machine earns each day moved by far less: 0.000476 bitcoin per petahash on 11 October, and every block still pays 3.125 bitcoin.

The cost side is where a miner can act. The most efficient machine we stock, the Antminer S23 XP Hyd at 8.9 J/TH, makes a coin for about $18,000 of electricity on 3.9¢ power in Nigeria at today's hashprice, against a market price of about $84,000 ($83,677 on 12 October). That is electricity only, before the machine and the pool fee.

The figure to watch this week is difficulty. If it rises, each petahash earns fewer coins; if it falls, more. What a machine earns is not guaranteed, and it follows the network, not the headlines.

About $18,000 to make a coin, about $84,000 to buy one.

Sources and further reading

Disclosure

Firsthand Bitcoin sells and hosts mining hardware, including this machine. No manufacturer, distributor or affiliate programme paid for or reviewed this page and we take no commission on the links above. Historical figures are computed from daily bitcoin price and network hashprice, each day valued at its own prices. Nothing here is investment advice.